Fiberglass cloth industry needs: expand boundaries and continue to grow

Fiberglass cloth continues to expand the downstream application field, mainly due to excellent performance and economy: Meet the demands of light density fiberglass cloth density is lower than the general metal, the smaller the density of the material, per unit volume than the quality of the tensile modulus of tensile strength meet the demand of stiffness and strength of composite material because of its design, stiffness and strength higher than that of steel aluminum alloy and other materials, is more suitable for high pressure environment Economical nearly in the past The price of 10-year winding direct yarn is 2400TEX, which is between steel and aluminum alloy. Large-scale application will not greatly increase the cost.

1.1 Building materials: the largest and most basic application field of fiberglass cloth

Building materials are the largest downstream application of fiberglass cloth, accounting for about 34%. fiberglass cloth reinforced with resin as matrix and fiberglass cloth as reinforcement material, fiberglass cloth is widely used in doors and Windows formwork reinforced concrete beams and other building structures.

1.2 Wind power blade reinforcement materials: leading products are constantly iterating, the threshold is high

Wind turbine blade structure includes upper and lower skin leaf root reinforcement layer of main beam system, and raw materials include resin matrix reinforcement material and adhesive core material, among which reinforcement materials mainly include fiberglass cloth and carbon fiber.

It mainly plays a role of light weight and high strength performance, accounting for about 28% of the material cost of wind turbine blades. Wind turbine yarn demand is affected by wind turbine installation.

The annual increase capacity of wind power grid connection under rush tide is 71.48GW; 2021 is the last year for China's sea breeze national subsidy. The annual sea breeze grid-connected capacity increased by 16.9GW, +340% year-on-year, and the annual wind power grid-connected capacity increased by 47.57GW. According to the Beijing Declaration on Wind Energy, During the 14th Five-year Plan period, China's annual wind power installed capacity should be more than 50GW, and the annual installed capacity after 2025 should be no less than 60GW. Considering only the incremental wind power blade fiberglass cloth demand, we estimate that 1GW wind power blade needs about 1 fiberglass cloth consumption of ten thousand tons (data source: Jushi 2020 Annual Report). In 2020-2021, the corresponding demand for wind power yarn is 714,48,475,700 tons respectively.

After the surge of wind power installation, it is expected that the fluctuation of wind power installation is relatively smooth 90%, leading products build barriers by iteration. Take China Megith E series fiberglass cloth as an example. In 2016, it developed the first high modulus fiberglass cloth E8 to achieve mass production in the pool kiln, truly realizing large-scale industrial application of high modulus fiberglass cloth High modulus fiberglass cloth is more suitable for the current fan upsizing trend.

1.3 Transportation: automobile light weight

The application of automobile lightweight fiberglass cloth in the field of transportation is mainly reflected in the three fields of rail transit equipment, automobile manufacturing and other vehicle manufacturing.

fiberglass cloth composite is an important material for automobile lightweight, and fiberglass cloth reinforced composite is used in the front-end module of automobiles due to its advantages of high strength, lightweight, modularization and low cost Engine cover decoration parts of new energy vehicle battery protection box composite plate spring is widely used, which can effectively reduce the quality of the vehicle.

Under the dual carbon background, it plays a significant role in reducing fuel consumption of fuel vehicles and improving the range of new energy vehicles. The demand for lightweight new energy vehicles is urgent. On the premise of the same quantity of electricity carried by new energy vehicles, if the range of new energy vehicles is to be improved, it must be achieved by improving efficiency However, the battery weight of electric vehicle is relatively large. In the case of no change in battery technology, reducing the weight of body interior chassis is an important way to achieve lightweight.

1)The utilization rate of modified plastics is lower than that of European and American countries. In 2020, China's passenger cars (non-new energy) use volume of modified plastics is 160 kg (composite materials account for 11.5%, fiberglass cloth is the main), the use mass ratio is 13%, while European and American countries use mass ratio of modified plastics is up to 19%(250-310kg), 25%(340-410kg) for German vehicles.

2)Penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased rapidly in 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 3.52 million units, +157% year-on-year, and the penetration rate was 16.4%, 9.6 percentage points higher than that of 2020 We predict that the demand for fiberglass cloth in the field of transportation in 2021-2022 will be 76.8 million tons, with a growth rate of 9% and 6% respectively:

(a)In 2020, the amount of new energy bicycle modified plastic is about 175kg(data source: International Composite materials prospectus), and the amount of non-new energy vehicle bicycle modified plastic is about 160kg(data source: Qianzhan Industry Research Institute), and the proportion of fiberglass cloth consumption in plastic consumption is 11.5%, which remains unchanged.

(b)The sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in 2021 is about 3.52 million, and the sales volume of passenger cars is about 21.48 million. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in 2022 will be 5.5 million (data source: Passenger Car Association),

(c)The sales volume of passenger cars will remain unchanged 10%(the forecast data in 2021 comes from the international composite materials prospectus), and the growth rate of non-new energy vehicles and bicycles is 6%.

(d)The growth rate of national rail transit investment in 2020 is 5%, and it is conservatively expected that the consumption rate of fiberglass cloth in other transportation fields, such as rail transit, will maintain a growth rate of 3%

1.4 Export: Overseas boom Continues

In 2021, China's total export of fiberglass cloth and its products reached 1.683 million tons, +26.6% year-on-year (according to the industry association, there is some difference with Zhuochuang). Overseas demand is high.

Since 2021H2, overseas epidemic situation has improved marginal, fiberglass cloth demand is strong, and the US infrastructure is improved The demand for thermoplastics in Europe is growing fast, while the supply of local enterprises in Europe and the United States is still affected, so overseas customers turn to Chinese fiberglass cloth enterprises for capacity supply.

1.5 Comprehensive demand calculation of fiberglass cloth

According to the data of China fiberglass cloth Industry Association, the apparent consumption of fiberglass cloth in 2021 will be 6.24 million tons, +15% year-on-year, mainly due to the development of new energy vehicles, buildings, energy-saving electronics and electrical appliances. Meanwhile, the export of foreign trade will return to the channel of rising.

It is estimated that the apparent consumption of fiberglass cloth in China in 2022 will be 6.6 million tons, +6% year-on-year, with the main increase coming from the export of new energy vehicles and wind power. In addition, it is assumed that the growth rate of fiberglass cloth consumption in construction materials and electronic equipment will both be 4% in 2022.